October 19, 2008.  Elections Approaching

With two weeks and two days until the presidential election, the consensus is that the Democrats are going to win.  Some pundits are beginning to talk of a liandslide.  Even the Republicans are beginning to say that defeat is imminent.  One writer has suggested that the only ways that McCain can win are: (a) a huge racially prejudiced backlash against the first black candidate, (b) a sudden uptick of about 2,000 points in the market, or (c) McCain's personal capture of Osama bin Laden.  While (a) is still possible, (b) and (c) are strictly fantasies.  Apart from some pessimistic Democrats (and Democrats have become so accustomed to losing that they're naturally pessimistic) and a few insanely optimistic Republicans (who believe that we all want someone "just like us" in the White House), people are talking as if it's all over but the voting.

I tend to agree, but, as the saying goes, "It ain't over until it's over."  It is certainly foolish not to vote in this critical election.  Whether we believe that the party we support is likely to lose or is guaranteed to win, nothng is ever a sure thing.  The polls and pundits have been dramatically wrong in the past, and upsets are almost as common in politics as they are in sports.  Recent elections have all been rather close because we are a highly divided and diverse country.

One theory I have is that the party that is enjoying a formidable lead is vulnerable because voters are more likely to stay home if they think their party "has it made."  While it's also true that those who think that their party is doomed to lose may surrender prematurely, I believe that complacency ("we've got it in the bag") is a more powerful rationalization for inaction.  This is a particular danger to the Democrats when they appear to be ahead.  The party is more dependent on support from younger voters, and these voters, lacking the historical perspective of how close elections can be, may be less inclined to vote if they think that the outcome is a foregone conclusion.  Older voters, however, have a tradition of going to the polls, regardless, as a matter of principle.

Be that as it may, my gut feeling is that this election will see the largest turnout in recent presidential elections.  It should clear 60% – something it has not done only once since 1968.  Experts say that larger turnouts favor the Democrats, but my view is that a larger turnout may make the election closer because it could signify even greater diversity among voters.  The election of 1968, in which the Republican (Nixon) was the winner, was the closest in the last 40 years in terms of popular vote – with the exception of the contested Bush-Gore debacle of 2000, in which both the electoral college and popular votes were close.

Readers may choose to ignore the rest of this because it tends to reinforce the current consensus.  While the Democrats have a uncanny knack for "grasping defeat from the jaws of victory," the McCain campaign has outclassed even the self-defeating Democrats in shooting itself in the foot.  True, the economic disaster has played right into the Democrats' hands – regardless of who's to blame, a down economy hurts the incumbent party.  McCain's own flip-flops on the economy and his switch to support of tax deductions for the wealthy have cast doubts on the earnestess of his generalizations about helping middle-class voters, for whom the pain of the financial meltdown is palpable.

Furthermore, despite weak verbal attempts to do so, McCain has failed to distance himself from a sitting president who has minimal approval (to put it mildly) even in his own party.   The selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate was a bad risk.  Putting aside her qualifications for the vice presidency, she has come to be seen not so much as the "maverick" but as a purely political choice – one in which McCain overestimated Palin's political appeal and underestimated her capacity to alienate large groups of voters.  She has become more a loose cannon than a maverick, known more for her venom than for her revolutionary ideas.  In this regard, too, McCain has endorsed far more "Rovian" politics than the public has stomach for and has thus undercut his image as a "man of honor."

Our own poll (albeit still small and very unscientific) gives Obama a commanding lead at the moment.  However, I still don't think it's a done deal, and I'm hesitant to predict a landslide.

October 23, 2008.  Conserving Gas

Gas prices are going down.  Whoopee!  Perhaps I would be happier about this unexpected windfall if I drove a gas-guzzler, but I don't.  I would certainly be happier if I thought that people would continue with the habits that they began to develop when gas was above $4 a gallon, but I know they won't.  Even in these difficult economic times, Americans will look upon the lower gas prices as an excuse to return to what we're good at – profligacy and self-indulgence.

I, for one, shall try not to follow the herd – not this time.  It's not just that I'm positive the price of gas will go up again.  It's that I have discovered that when gas was more than $4, I could, by relatively small sacrifices, cut the cost of driving and possibly make a small contribution to the environment.  Why not continue?  It doesn't hurt that much.

Certainly, there wasn't much I could do when gas was more expensive.  As I said, I don't drive a gas guzzler.  About all I could and did do was think twice about "discretionary" driving.  It was easier than I though it would be to consolidate errands; all it took was some better planning.  Where I used to make separate trips to the mall, the grocery store, and the post office, I planned so that the three trips could be made in one outing.  This cut out only a few miles, but at $4 a gallon, maybe I saved a buck; at $3 a gallon, I can still save 75 cents.  In the long run, I also saved some time.  Why not continue?

Another change I made was to my driving habits.  Though, like almost everyone else, I consider myself to be a sensible driver.  I am not a brake-happy idiot.  However, style of driving is 99.5% habit, and, when I started to give it some conscious thought, I realized that I had some bad habits.  I was alternately speeding up and braking when I could maintain a fairly constant speed (without dawdling) and coast on the downgrade.

I have no way of knowing for certain how much gas I saved by making these two small changes, but I do know that, after a couple of weeks of doing this, we were filling the tank with $4 a gallon gas about three-fourths as often as we did when it was $3 a gallon.  In dollars and cents, that was a wash; in gas consumed, it represented a 25% decrease.  If I keep that up, I can pretend that gas is still $4 a gallon and, every time I fill up, put 75 cents for each gallon I buy into the piggy bank.  Anyone who has ever had a piggy bank knows how the small change can add up.

I don't need to get behind a podium and lecture about saving the environment or about how greedy the oil companies are.  These may be valid points, but they aren't motivators.  A much stronger motivator is the knowledge that my piggy bank is getting heavier and that I have more time to do things that I like better than driving and running errands.  I can, for example, take longer naps.  Naps really save energy – namely mine.  If I were Emperor of the World, I would have a very simple energy policy – drive less, cool it on the brake pedal, and take longer or more naps.

October 29, 2008.  The Future Is Now . . . or Is It?

We're coming up to the time of year that is marked by what I call "landmark days."  That's my label for days that are, or are supposed to be, somehow distinguished from other days because something planned and anticipated happens.  The period starts with Halloween, continues with Thanksgiving, and climaxes with Christmas, with New Years putting a coda on the whole process.  Ever since stores began hyping the holidays (as we now refer to them to be inclusive and politically correct), I have called this time HallowThanksMas.

I try to be a believer in "living for today" and have become more so with the increasing realistic awareness that the number of days I have left is limited.  Nevertheless, this time of year is inevitably characterized by preparations and expectations, so I find myself with one foot in tomorrow more often than I would like to be.

I can't avoid it.  Details have to be attended to in advance, lest the "landmark days" come and go without the necessary preparations.  For example, it's my tradition to burn and distribute compilations of holiday music every year, and these must be done early in December.  Nobody wants to listen to the stuff much after December 25.  Planning starts around Halloween, the master copy must be made by Thanksgiving or shortly thereafter, and this is followed by a mad dash during the first week of December to make copies, package the discs, and distribute or mail them out.  Meanwhile, the fall semester is winding down, and I must give exams, score final papers, and post the verdict.  Other people are involved in different activities, all in preparation for the one or more "landmark days."

Fortunately, with all the "foot-in-tomorrow" planning I must do while in the midst of attending to immediate obligations, I have a plan that trumps all other plans.  It is, quite simply, to focus in one thing at a time.  Multitasking may work for some, but it's counterproductive for me.  A corollary to this approach is never to rush through whatever the appointed task is.  When I do that, I make mistakes, and everything ultimately takes longer.  It's tempting to rush during a shopping trip (everyone else seems to be in a hurry) so that I can get to the next task on the long list of "to-do's," but it never pays off.

It's quite simple, really.  I cannot enjoy the moment if I'm not in the moment.  Perhaps other people derive pleasure from playing "beat the clock," but I don't.  Indeed, some people seem to be playing this game from the beginning of the holidays until the end.  I don't see how they can enjoy anything under those circumstances.

Now, I'm going to put aside some time to write some reflections on the holidays – a revision and expansion of my old "Inner Sense" piece.  More than a decade ago, when I wrote that article, it produced an attitude adjustment that has served me well ever since.  I think it needs a little fine-tuning.